Abstract
Uncovering the causal relationship between urban rail investments and the real estate market is critical for financing infrastructure projects. Previous studies have explored the impact of urban rail transit on property prices and have mainly reported positive effects for projects that experienced no operational delays. However, delays in urban rail projects may generate uncertainty about future accessibility benefits, yet their effects have received much less attention in the literature. To fill this gap, we examine the effects of a delayed urban rail project on land prices using a novel approach that combines machine learning and spatial difference-in-differences models. Specifically, we examine how completed construction and delayed operation of the first urban rail line influence land prices in Hanoi, Vietnam. Our results reveal that completed construction had a positive effect on land prices, with prices increasing by 3.76% in treatment zones compared to control zones. Notably, land plots within 150-300 meters of the construction site experienced the highest price increases after construction completion. However, during the delayed operation phase, land prices within 750 meters of the station decreased significantly by 3.45%, indicating that prolonged uncertainty may weaken expectations regarding future accessibility benefits. We further discuss the relationship between urban rail investment and land price premiums, highlighting concerns about their inequitable distribution. This study provides insights for urban planners and policymakers on capturing and reinvesting the benefits of infrastructure investments to fund future transport projects.
Quang Cuong Doan
Visiting PhD
